Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal - ENSAE Paris Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Microorganisms Année : 2020

Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal

Baba Sall
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1083582
Mbargou Lo
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1083583
Coumba Faye
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1083584

Résumé

Bluetongue is a non-contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants and cattle that can cause severe economic losses in the livestock sector. The virus is transmitted by certain species of the genus Culicoides and consequently, understanding their distribution is essential to enable the identification of high-risk transmission areas. In this work we use bioclimatic and environmental variables to predict vector abundance, and estimate spatial variations in the basic reproductive ratio R0. The resulting estimates were combined with livestock mobility and serological data to assess the risk of Bluetongue outbreaks in Senegal. The results show an increasing abundance of C. imicola, C. oxystoma, C. enderleini, and C. miombo from north to south. R0 < 1 for most areas of Senegal, whilst southern (Casamance) and southeastern (Kedougou and part of Tambacounda) agro-pastoral areas have the highest risk of outbreak (R0 = 2.7 and 2.9, respectively). The next higher risk areas are in the Senegal River Valley (R0 = 1.07), and the Atlantic coast zones. Seroprevalence rates, shown by cELISA, weren’t positively correlated with outbreak probability. Future works should include follow-up studies of competent vector abundancies and serological surveys based on the results of the risk analysis conducted here to optimize the national epidemiological surveillance system.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
2020_microorganisms_ba-gahn.pdf (2.91 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-03032213 , version 1 (30-11-2020)

Licence

Paternité

Identifiants

Citer

Marie Cicille Ba Gahn, Fallou Niakh, Mamadou Ciss, Ismaila Seck, Modou Moustapha Lo, et al.. Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal. Microorganisms, 2020, 8 (11), pp.1766. ⟨10.3390/microorganisms8111766⟩. ⟨hal-03032213⟩
112 Consultations
103 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More